The week that was

Cuban shaheds, End of a Polish deployment, Taiwan post-summit

I am traveling this week. It is nice because I have not traveled much internationally since I left the military. I do enjoy it, but I also miss home. That was always the case. I need to figure out a way to travel with the family and also work. If anyone has any success tips for that, I am all ears.

For Taiwan, “To be or not to be?”

The most famous line from Shakespeare’s Hamlet is, unambiguously, “To be or not to be?” What is sometimes forgotten is that the soliloquy is, at its core, a question of suicide. Hamlet is calmly asking himself if he should kill himself. The emotion behind those lines seems to be, at least to some degree, what passed through President Lai Ching-te’s mind prior to his statement, “Taiwan will not provoke conflict nor give up sovereignty.”

In some ways, that President Lai Ching-te felt the need to say these words was the most important result from the Trump-Xi summit. The majority of the summit was a nothing-burger. There was not a deal of any kind on anything. I hope it disabuses the administration of the idea that there can be a deal with China that is based on trade. President Trump, in his post-summit interview with Bret Baier, said, “Nothing's changed [regarding Taiwan]. I will say this: I'm not looking to have somebody [Taiwan] go independent. And, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that. I want them [Taiwan] to cool down. I want China to cool down."

Sticking with Hamlet, the interview is President Trump being “cruel to be kind” to Taiwan. Is it kindness? Who determines if Taiwan has calmed down? Or China, for that matter? Who is the international arbiter that underpins the international order and would see fit to defend Taiwan if it were attacked unprovoked because, as Xi has said, it is China’s policy that Taiwan will not be independent, despite its current de facto independence? For clarity, remember that we are talking about a country that has its own president and legislative body. Taiwan must forswear provoking China while China is free to coerce.

The U.S.-backed order, while not always perfect, knew that “it is excellent to have a giant’s strength, but it is tyrannous to use it like a giant.” It seems we are rather forgetting that and falling more into the world of Thucydides, where the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

Cuban Shaheds

On 17 May 2026, Axios reported “Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels and possibly Key West, Fla., 90 miles north of Havana, according to classified intelligence shared with Axios.” This matters because it potentially indicates that Cuba is preparing for retribution should the U.S. attempt to capture Raul Castro or force regime change. It also matters because it shows that, once again, the world is entering a period of increased instability as weapons once reserved for the state are democratized.

Could Shahed-style drones stop a rapid decapitation in Havana similar to the Maduro Raid? Without a doubt, no. That is not what they are for. They are for, in the case of Russia against Ukraine, terror and, in the case of Iran against the U.S., ways for weaker countries to strike stronger opponents. The Shaheds did not stop the U.S. attacks on Iran while they were happening, though arguably they did help bring about the ceasefire. They would give Cuba a chance to hold at risk the majority of U.S. Gulf oil production, the Tampa, Miami, and Atlanta airports, and potentially targets as far north as the upper Midwest. Much like the Cuban Missile Crisis, this is not something that the U.S. can or will tolerate, and it will raise the risk of conflict.

Polish Deployment

From Politico,

Pete Hegseth’s last-minute decision to cancel the deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland caught Pentagon staff and European allies by surprise — the latest example of an abrupt personnel move from the Defense secretary that blindsided both sides of the Atlantic.

It wasn’t clear exactly why Hegseth issued the order, according to three defense officials familiar with the matter. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed anger and frustration with European allies for their failure to help with the Iran war, although Trump has labeled Poland a “model ally” for its high defense spending.

This was such a surprise that the U.S. had already started the deployment of personnel and equipment to Poland. The greatest impact that I can see is that our allies continue to lose hope that the U.S. is a reliable partner.

The common thread to all of these stories is bleak. The U.S.-backed international order is fraying. Our adversaries are adapting while our allies must be recalculating.