Two Interpretations of the Same Operation
Taiwanese Officials and Chinese Netizens see what they want to see.
Over the weekend, the U.S. launched Operation Absolute Resolve to capture President Maduro of Venezuela. Since the announcement of the raid, there has been an overwhelming wave of commentators and Venezuela experts with thoughts on why this is or is not legal and what it will or will not do. I am certainly no Venezuela expert. However, whatever the legal merits argued for this action, the informational effects are already global. That said, what I can talk about is how two sets of people see this event, Taiwan and the PRC. The same facts, different strategic cultures: one sides sees a template and permission to act; the other sees reassurance and a form of deterrence.
Bloomberg reported that Chinese social media site Weibo saw 440 million views on the topic of the Venezuelan operation with some commentators suggesting “the same method to reclaim Taiwan in the future”. Another offered that since the U.S. does not take international law seriously, why should the PRC. Despite this posts denial of the PRC’s nine-dashed line and push into Philippines and Vietnamese claimed territorial waters, it shows some predictable thinking. If the U.S. has the “Donroe Doctrine” then China should have the Xi-Sphere (She-Sphere). Taiwan must be upset.
The Straits Times reported that Taiwanese officials see this bolstering Taiwan’s defense. Well, that is surprising. Does this mean that Taiwanese officials think the U.S. is going to decapitate the PRC to protect Taiwan? Not literally. The point is credibility. Taiwan reads the Maduro operation as evidence Trump will accept escalation risk to protect core interest. Later in the piece they claim that they are not worried about the PLA conducting a similar raid because “they lack capability, not precedent.” One thing that should caution this outlook is the PLA has created mock-ups of the Taiwanese presidential office to conduct rehersals in. This could be just signaling and noise, or it may be contigency preparation; either way, it conditions attention towards leadership targeting.
Why does it matter that two side see this so drastically differently? Well, in part it matters because these views start to create the foundations of how you approach the world. If Chinese netizens (and since it is on PRC governed media we can assume the PRC leadership at least agrees somewhat) think that this is a net positive and a good example of how they should address the DPP in Taiwan, that has to play into their calculation and how they defend the President of Taiwan and their leadership. The inverse, if you think the PRC is incapable of this type of action, maybe you are right, but that is a big and potentially negative EV bet.